There was a time when American journalism was the gold standard of the world. We created the world's first journalism school. Newspapers and, later, broadcasters all over the world looked up and tried to emulate our practices. But no longer.
I've traveled the world quite a lot in the last 10-15 years. I've read local newspapers and watched TV news in places where journalism once was illegal -- Moscow, St. Petersburg, Prague, the former East Germany. Around the world I've seen the influence of the American tradition, and it is a powerful force for good.
Then came Rupert Murdoch.
We live in an open society. Usually what immigrants contribute to American culture enriches us all. But Rupert Murdoch, immigrant from Australia, has injected into American journalism a vile corruption, a willingness to abandon the truth and embrace falsehood when it's convenient and profitable.
Murdoch is a smart and ruthless businessman, and he's used his skills to create a highly successful national TV network. He's taken over newspaper after newspaper, culminating in wresting control of the Wall Street Journal from the Bancroft family. And he's put together a 24-hour cable news channel that could have been an awesome force for good ... but instead has become a source of poison pumped right into the heart of journalism and American democracy.
My disgust with Fox News is not political. I'm not offended that opinion is being mingled with facts. I'm offended that opinion is being constructed on top of fabrications, inventions, falsehoods, lies.
The most recent and most egregious example, the libelous attack on Shirley Sherrod of Athens, Georgia, is just part of a series from a pseudo-news organization that has become part of an assembly line producing mind poison.
Let me be perfectly clear. This is not about left and right. It's about right and wrong.
Here's how the assembly line works. Someone invents a lie. The lie gets passed around among liars, growing and getting momentum. Fox News then gives it a big ride into orbit. Talking points are distributed to TV hosts, TV guests, politicians and bloggers. The chorus gets louder and louder. Soon it makes no difference whether it's true or false, because the poison is so thoroughly injected into the civic conversation that permanent damage has been done -- to individuals, to organizations and institutions, and ultimately to America.
It's like Henry Ford's factory. No one person actually builds the car. Everybody just adds a bolt here, a nut there. And there are plenty of nuts.
Andrew Breitbart, the blog network operator who posted the deception in the Sherrod case, can feign innocence. Somebody else edited the video. He never saw the whole speech. Fox News can feign innocence. It just reported on the controversy. Somebody else is always at fault.
There are legitimate journalists working at Fox, trying to practice actual journalism in a corrupt vessel, but that only makes this more tragic. People, get out. Find an honorable job.
When I put together my ten good-enough predictions, I didn't toss in any flying cars or Mr. Fusion generators. Everything I mentioned already exists; I'm just making reasonable guesses about adoption.
Here's what you can't predict: black swan events. A black swan event is by definition unexpected, unanticipated, rare and high-impact. A black swan event represents discontinuous change. It's so named because all swans were long believed to be white, and the discovery of black swans in Australia in the 17th century shook the scientific world.
In 1993, a lot of us believed we were on the cusp of great change in the world of media, but the form of that change was unclear. Online services were growing at mind-boggling rates.
The future seemed to belong to Compuserve, Prodigy, America Online, Delphi and similar services that were heavily recruiting traditional media companies to put their content into paid-access services. Those of us working on digital projects thought that would be the black swan for the print world.
People like Harley Manning at Prodigy and David Rollert at Ziff-Davis had grand designs for slick and beautiful applications that users would purchase and download onto their computers, gaining access to bundles of content and services for which they presumably would pay. Fearing it would miss the revolution, Microsoft poured millions into development of its own platform, codenamed Blackbird, that would change the world.
Then came the real black swan.
When nearly everyone believed these bundled services were the future, something happened to the Internet, which had been around for years as a research and educational network. The change was small but the results were huge: a general ban on commercial usage simply evaporated.
I was in Minneapolis at the time, working on an online project with a slick, downloadable app that people would pay for.
In early 1993, there was only one provider of Internet service -- a nonprofit co-op closely tied to the supercomputer technology community. By the end of 1994, there were more than 110 little entrepreneurial Internet service providers. Telnet and Gopher were replaced by Mosaic and the World Wide Web. Tripod and Geocities were enabling anyone to be a publisher.
A black swan had destroyed the world of scarcity, eliminated barriers between people and publishing, and demolished all the "content is king" plans of traditional media companies that assumed they would rule the new digital world.
Everything had changed. And here we are, some 15 years later, still trying to figure it out.
We may be on the cusp of another discontinuous change, another black swan. If so, then the more certain we are of the future, the more wrong we will be. What do smartphones and tablets mean? Disaster, if you're Microsoft. But do they create a black swan event for media companies? We can only guess.
One wall of my office is covered with notes and diagrams trying to divine the future. Nobody can get it right, so I'm actually not worried about that. What's important is to generate views that are useful and helpful in planning. In that spirit, I thought I should share a few "predictions" and see what you all think. I'm thinking of the period 2015-2018. It's close enough to be real, but far enough to give the imagination some running room.
Engadget's Darren Murph has a tale of how ESPN's newsroom adopts technology:
"The iPad has been out for just over two months, yet somehow ESPN -- a massive corporation that should technically have all sorts of red tape bogging down this type of forward thinking -- has managed to not only get a setup working in its labs, but actually get the new setup working and onto shows that we're enjoying each and every day. "
This shouldn't be out of the ordinary, but it is. Corporations routinely create layers of rules and red table that keep bright people from doing new things. Rules are for stability. Revolutions are made by rule-breakers.
I'm old enough to have been around at the dawn of the personal computer revolution -- even before IBM got into it.
In the early days, sneaking a personal computer into a corporation was a radical act. Computers were huge, expensive machines surrounded by a priesthood dedicated to protecting the investment (and not so incidentally, also protecting the priesthood).
Personal computers didn't enter the workplace through the IT department. They came in through the side door. Individuals brought them in to perform calculations (using VisiCalc), word processing (using Electric Pencil) or to run amateurishly written programs (in BASIC).
When I started working in digital media at the Minneapolis Star Tribune in the mid-1990s, I had to break all sorts of rules. There was a pathetically outdated corporate standard for PCs and a terribly overpriced official vendor. The officialy blessed systems didn't meet our needs.
I broke the rules by buying computers at Best Buy and the Northgate outlet store on my personal credit card, threw out the corporate Windows 3.1 image and installed a beta version of Windows 95. This led to a great wailing and gnashing of teeth in the IT hierarchy, but I stuck with it. We had Things to Do in a Hurry, and I wasn't at all interested in the limits of "support" from the IT department. We eventually reached an accord on these issues, and the IT folks slowly came to grasp what we were doing, but to get there I had some rule-breaking to do.
Rules are there for a reason. We shouldn't forget that.
Generally, whenever you find a rule, it's because somebody did something that was spectacularly bad or stupid in the past. If you go plugging random crap into the company network you might wind up introducing a virus and accidentally deleting every image on the shared server (which happened when I was at Cox Interactive and no, it wasn't me who did it). And it's not all about technology. You might run afoul of Sarbanes-Oxley, perish the thought. You need to understand the reasons for rules, and the risks that come with breaking them.
But reasons trump rules. Revolutions are made by rule-breakers, and we need revolutions. We need revolutions even if they piss off somebody who doesn't like getting phone calls at 3 a.m. about things they never heard of and can't fix.
Just be very careful about picking your fights, line up management support before you make your moves so that you're not alone out on a limb, and make sure you can win. When revolutions end badly, it's not a pretty sight.
I thought we were beyond this, but no: it seems that quite a number of people who are old enough to know better are making silly pronouncements to the effect that Tablet Is The New Print.
This calls for a mind-expanding whack on the side of the head, preferably applied with Maslow's hammer. Abraham Maslow was the psychologist famous for his "hierarchy of needs." He also was famous for saying "If the only tool you have is a hammer, you tend to see every problem as a nail." That's called Maslow's hammer, or sometimes "the law of the instrument."
If you're a designer, you tend to see the world as a series of design problems. If you're a newspaper journalist, you tend to look at the Internet and think of "online newspapers." That, by the way, was the chief product visioning error of the period from 1995 to today, an era when non-newspaper Internet companies got insanely wealthy and newspaper companies took a nosedive into the dirt.
So now we have the tablet. The iPad is not the first, but it's the first to come reasonably close to getting it right from a usability perspective, and it will lead to a new breed of devices that will supplant the personal computer for a large percentage of the population.
Old media people are really, really excited about the iPad. Many believe that it heralds a return to the form, the business model and the look, if not the feel, of printed newspapers and magazines.
This is foolish and self-defeating, as we should have learned from 15 years of operating on the Web. The Tablet Is Not The New Print. That's not how the world works.
If you're a Web person you're probably thinking: "of course, the tablet is the new Web."
It is, but a word of caution is in order. This is not the old Web on new devices. It's not even the old Web minus Flash and minus all the viruses, malware and other insanity of the fading Microsoft era. It's something far more intensely personal, more tactile, and -- for more reasons than merely Apple's failure to support multitasking -- focused.
But it's still the Web with all its interactivity and social interaction. And it's still the Web, searchable, real-time, practically infinite. It's not a restoration of the scarcity that made fortunes for print empire-builders from Hearst and Pulitzer to Rupert Murdoch.
Laying out splashy pages with InDesign and cramming them into a 40-minute downloadable iPad app might make you feel good, but it's not the future of journalism.
Here are some tips for reporters about how to deal with story commenting.
Do:
Engage. Online behavior always improves when responsible adults are present.
Answer. Respond to genuine questions.
Listen. Keep an eye out for story ideas. Discover whether your reporting is informing or confusing people.
Clarify and correct. When people are confused or misinformed, post clear and accurate information. Link to authoritative sources whenever possible.
Don't:
Debate. Avoid argumentation.
Opine. Your role is to "shed light and not to master." (Extra points if you get the reference.)
Feed the trolls. Some people are best ignored.
When in doubt, consult a supervisor.
Thirteen hours of Twittering by Austrian businessman @freakingcat tells an eyewitness tale of Bangkok burning in detail that generally has escaped conventional/professional journalism. I grabbed a snapshot of his posts from a long and painful Wednesday in Thailand's capital. You might wish to scroll to the bottom, and read up.
Its getting night! Tomorrow the sun will rise again! Thailand will be changed forever!
37 minutes ago via Twitterrific
freakingcat just have candle light dinner. Bangkok in darknest, it will be a very long night
about 1 hour ago via mobile web
fff
about 1 hour ago via mobile web
At khlong toei believe it or not reds still hold a meeting at their stage
about 2 hours ago via Twitterrific
It gonna be a night of horror for Thailand but there will always be a new tomorrow. Lets work together for Our future!
about 3 hours ago via Twitterrific
Tweeting with almost no battery. Freakingcat is ok. We still are in shock about what happened to Bangkok but we deal with it!
about 3 hours ago via Twitterrific
Received messages for phone interviews. Now almost iphone empty if electricity returns yes email me: freakingcat@gmail.com
about 3 hours ago via Twitterrific
To all reporters and firefighters medics soldiers and police out there...we thank you for risking your lives for everybody. Lets move forwar
about 3 hours ago via Twitterrific
I dont want to report tonight anymore about the violence and destruction th thailand. I have experienced enough today. I wish for peace !
about 3 hours ago via Twitterrific
Freakingcat prepares now for a long night without electricity. Our hearts reach out to all of you who stood by us and even offered accomodat
about 3 hours ago via Twitterrific
We fear looters might come but have blocked every door and window in our house. Our soi locked too. I thank you all for your prayers.
about 4 hours ago via Twitterrific
Freakingcat still alive. Situation more quiet now. We stay in our house and prepare for a night without electricity. Drawing last laptop ba.
about 4 hours ago via Twitterrific
Fire at electricity works still on...rama 4 is a ghoststreet. Thanks for all tweeters. We stay in our house overnighy.
about 5 hours ago via Twitterrific
Lots of firetrucks sirens heard at khlong toei
about 5 hours ago via Twitterrific
Now thaksin you got what you wanted? Bangkok is burning! Thailand is crying!
about 5 hours ago via Twitterrific
All reporters please hide somewhere inside! Reds start to attack you!
about 5 hours ago via Twitterrific
Called austrian embassy and reported our location. We try to stay in our house overnight. Please people of the world, pray for peace !
about 5 hours ago via Twitterrific
Please tweet me the emergency number of austrian embassy
about 5 hours ago via Twitterrific
We will try to stay tonight in our house and tomorrow decide where to go. Thx for all your offers to help!
about 5 hours ago via Twitterrific
Curfew at bangkok. Still huge explosions here. Announcrment of government now via loudspeakers on street
about 6 hours ago via Twitterrific
Please if it is possible get us out from here tomorrow. We need a hotel room for 3 and cats.soi baan plai nuan. Khlong toei
about 6 hours ago via Twitterrific
We will evacuate tomorrow if possible. We need a hotel room for 3 people and our 3 cats please people help us!
about 6 hours ago via Twitterrific
Got a bit of electricity from laptop. Electricityworks burns out completely. We fear wind may turn and set our house on fire
about 6 hours ago via Twitterrific
30 meter flames! Fire getting worst. Huge explosions!!!
about 6 hours ago via Twitterrific
Battery almost finished. Electricity works cannot be saved. I will tweet you if i find power. Pray for bangkok! Pray!
about 6 hours ago via Twitterrific
Rama 4 is all destroyed! I am crying!
about 6 hours ago via Twitterrific
Firefifhters try to break open electricity gates.... Huge huge explosions all khlong toei full of smoke
about 6 hours ago via Twitterrific
Transformator blew up!!! Insane fire at whole electricity building now....fire at kt stage
about 6 hours ago via Twitterrific
All windows destroyed of mrt khlong toei. Smoke took pics but cannot send. Apocalypic!!!! Hell
about 6 hours ago via Twitterrific
Firetrucks arrive but fire out of control!!! My god!!! Mrt getting burned too
about 6 hours ago via Twitterrific
Firetruck just beside at soi baan plai nuan cannot get out! Reds destroy everything!!!
about 6 hours ago via Twitterrific
My god!!! Huge fire at electricity work khlong toei just beside our house! Huge thick smoke!
about 6 hours ago via Twitterrific
Electricity building beside our house on fire!!! Thicl smoke
about 6 hours ago via Twitterrific
Helicopter is circling over bon kai...sporadic loud bangs...loudspeaker announcement. People heard shouting, ambulances and more bangs
about 6 hours ago via Twitterrific
Many loud bangs at khlong toei, every few seconds...loudspeaker announcement, ambulances heard
about 7 hours ago via Twitterrific
Massive fires at chidlom bts...
about 7 hours ago via Twitterrific
Unconformed reports that central world and paragon are burning. Ambulanes heard at khlong toei
about 7 hours ago via Twitterrific
Many loud explosions heard now at khlong toei!!
about 7 hours ago via Twitterrific
Rours protesters entered central world and start to burn things at 1st floor.
about 7 hours ago via Twitterrific
Funfire bombs and firecrackers at central world plaza...even after reds surrendered reports say
about 7 hours ago via Twitterrific
Loud bang now heard at khling toei street near stage...prob. 2 helicopters circling
about 7 hours ago via Twitterrific
5 red leaders turn themselves in says TAN network!!! Bangs still heard at khlong toei
about 7 hours ago via Twitterrific
People throw petrolbombs at stores, its reported...fights still going on in some parts of bangkok
about 7 hours ago via Twitterrific
More explosions reported at chidlom. I doubt that reds at khlong toei will follow nattawuds request to surrender. They are agitated
about 7 hours ago via Twitterrific
Nattawud and jattuporn arrested!!!! Reds at khlong toei still not give up! One loud bang heard again, helicopters circling above
about 7 hours ago via Twitterrific
Siam and central world reported cleared! Red leaders urge reds to surrender
about 7 hours ago via Twitterrific
Rockets fired from near kt stage...estimated 600 ppl there..saw at least 10 black masked guys passing by towards stage. Now our soi locked
about 7 hours ago via Twitterrific
Crowd at khling toei stage screaming all together...area under expressway completelu empty reds confirm sniper
about 7 hours ago via Twitterrific
Locals say now sniper at mrt khling toei area so thats why everyone leaving towarfs stage...scary not one stays back!
about 7 hours ago via Twitterrific
Many guys with black facemasks moving by...threaten me not to take pic and put phone down. Run to safety into our soi
about 7 hours ago via Twitterrific
Motorbikes warn people to move away from under expressway. All run now
about 7 hours ago via Twitterrific
Area under expressway almost free of people, tyres in front of lumpini tower smoking not burning
about 7 hours ago via Twitterrific
Now quiet at khlong toei so i take a peek... Many agitated reds in front of stage...maybe 400
about 7 hours ago via Twitterrific
Can hear from my house at khlong toei crowd shouting angrily. I am scared to go out now! Explosions stopped.
about 8 hours ago via Twitterrific
Fire outside sheraton/westin hotels ashoke/sukhumvit reported
about 8 hours ago via Twitterrific
@vaitor you are a hero, please watch out!!! Dont get shot!
about 8 hours ago via Twitterrific
RT @Tonymaggs: @freakingcat download echofon free. It allows retweets. You're a star, best I'm following...:-)
about 8 hours ago via API
Cannot download another program on iphone to re-tweet phone internet connection too slow but thanks guys for advise!!!
about 8 hours ago via Twitterrific
Udon thani city hall on fire! Protesters torch them!
about 8 hours ago via Twitterrific
7 read leaders to surrender!! Isnt that great news guys???? Lets hope this is true and fighting will stop soon!!!
about 8 hours ago via Twitterrific
Now huge loud bang heard at khlong toei! Dont get out on the streets!!! Helicopters still hovering above
about 8 hours ago via Twitterrific
Ch3 reports red shirts took over century park hotel
about 8 hours ago via Twitterrific
Continuous gunshots at expressway khlong toei, mrt area. Its heating up here. Constants small explosions. Many more gunshots! Now big expl
about 8 hours ago via Twitterrific
Loudspeaker annoyncements heard now by reds at khlong toei near expressway, helicopters, many gunshots now!!!!
about 8 hours ago via Twitterrific
Khling toei many explosions!! Shots very near by MRT !!! Its dangerous!! Get out from there!!!
about 8 hours ago via Twitterrific
Channel 9 jatuporn wants to surrender!!!
about 8 hours ago via Twitterrific
Senator lertrat told tv thay red leader want to surrender!!
about 8 hours ago via Twitterrific
Iphone program doesnt allow me to re-tweet messages,so i type them from what infos i get from heroes out there. Only khlong toei first hand
about 8 hours ago via Twitterrific
Explosions many heard at khling toei...maybe firecrackers maybe gunshots
about 8 hours ago via Twitterrific
Urgent! Rumours that arisman was arrested...awaiting confirmation
about 8 hours ago via Twitterrific
Big loud bang heard now at Khlong Toei. Another one!!!! loud! Helicopters again above
about 8 hours ago via Twitterrific
Just bern told that reds at Khling toei stage are mobilizing and are moving towards lumphini . 6 min ago!
about 8 hours ago via Twitterrific
@vaitor spoke of din deng area sorry forgot to mention
about 9 hours ago via Twitterrific
Warning from hero @vaitor reporters hide cameras and take off green armband!!!! Danger crowd Angry!!!
about 9 hours ago via Twitterrific
@JSeymour026 i can hear and saw helicopters 10 min ago above soi baan plai nuan...now only hear them at distance
about 9 hours ago via Twitterrific in reply to JSeymour026
About 100 reds under expressway khlong toei...angry....helicopters circling above
about 9 hours ago via Twitterrific
Gunshots and explosions heard at Khlong Toei. Helicopters circling again
about 9 hours ago via Twitterrific
Police hospital confirms death of italien journalist
about 9 hours ago via Twitterrific
Thai media report soldiers slowly advance towards stage...few protesters there
about 9 hours ago via Twitterrific
Reds putting gas canisters on road near pathum wan to stop advance of troops
about 9 hours ago via Twitterrific
Khon kaen redshirts storm city hall...snipers shoot at firefighters on rama4 soi ngam dupli
about 9 hours ago via Twitterrific
@vaitor reports 2 foreign reporters shot 2 more bodies found
about 9 hours ago via Twitterrific
Great @vaitor is fine he is near stage now...soldiers moving forward
about 9 hours ago via Twitterrific
@BKKsmiles5 GREAT !!!! Please RT number to all and send message out to catch those bastards who have brought us so much suffering
about 9 hours ago via Twitterrific in reply to BKKsmiles5
Hope @vaitor is fine! That young guy is so brave and his work is fantastic
about 9 hours ago via Twitterrific
Troops seize lumphini around statue about to approach ratchprasong
about 9 hours ago via Twitterrific
Please hunt down those red shirt leaders! They are terrorists!!!!
about 9 hours ago via Twitterrific
025511515 if you see one of the red shirt leaders who fled, call this number to catch those bastards
about 9 hours ago via Twitterrific
To my followers: cannot retweet messages now. Please follow others like @georgebkk @tulsathit @vaitor
about 9 hours ago via Twitterrific
Message to dan river: show some guts man! You get paid for doing your job! So start doing it!!!! Non red local thais are upset about you!!!
about 9 hours ago via Twitterrific
Update...flames reaching up to overpasd at rama 4 in front of lumphini tower 10 meters!!!
about 9 hours ago via Twitterrific
Met crazy farang who wants to walk home now from rama 4 khling toei to sathorn
about 10 hours ago via Twitterrific
Reds extremely agressive at Khong toei prevent me from getting near stage and take pictures
about 10 hours ago via Twitterrific
Maybe 800 reds now at KT stage, ready to support reds at ratcjprasong
about 10 hours ago via Twitterrific
Still smoke at bon kai! Reds on motorbikes start to leave
about 10 hours ago via Twitterrific
Urgent! Repeat! 500 reds now start grouping at KT and will storm to ratchprasong
about 10 hours ago via Twitterrific
Red told me crowd now all form a group and will try to go to ratchprasong for helping reds there to fight
about 10 hours ago via Twitterrific
Everyone running in panic away from expresdway towards stage
about 10 hours ago via Twitterrific
Mant reds on motorbikes at Khlong toei now all leaving towards stage
about 10 hours ago via Twitterrific
RT @RichardBarrow: Two bodies of civilians were found on Rachadamri Road in the protesters' encampment (Reuters)
about 10 hours ago via API
Explosion heard again at khlong toei
about 10 hours ago via Twitterrific
RT @georgebkk: "reds running around in small groups, carrying handguns, also two guys with ak47 and painted warface!" /via @vaitor
about 10 hours ago via API
RT @Journotopia: On Soi Ngam Dupli, sth of Rama 4, Fire at what looks like Chanpen restaurant. http://twitpic.com/1p1opm
about 10 hours ago via API
RT @tulsathit: RT @Dany_k: RT @BangkokDan: Reports: first signs of panic among Ratchaprasong women & children.\
about 10 hours ago via API
RT @georgebkk: NBT has the govt warning - "Not to leave your home. The fighting is on going." /via @veen_NT
about 10 hours ago via API
RT @georgebkk: 'Now at Chulalongkorn hospital. Heavy gunfire. Helicopters overhead' /via @markmackinnon
about 10 hours ago via API
Now less smoke near lumphini tower
about 10 hours ago via Twitterrific
Freakingcat has no electricity but is back safe at the house
about 10 hours ago via TweetDeck
Huge fire, some explosions at khlong toei expressway http://tweetphoto.com/23017081
about 11 hours ago via TweetDeck
RT @seacorro: #Redshirts ask reporters to leave media area at main stage.
about 13 hours ago via web
At Ratchaprasong it is full of smoke TNN reports, cannot see what Reds are doing
about 13 hours ago via web
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